The Independent Australian
a politically incorrect magazine of ideas and comment outside the mainstream
GLOBAL WARMING - the great debate Autumn 2004 Issue 2
The debate is best summarized by a series of propositions, each of which has a varying degree of acceptance.
Proposition 1 The earth’s surface is getting hotter and the rate of warming is increasing.
Nobody disputes the scientific measurements reflected from satellites. Visual evidence of polar ice caps contracting and record high temperatures in Australia reinforce the truth of the proposition.
Proposition 2 Sea levels will rise, causing hardship and dislocation to some communities.
This follows from Proposition 1, although the magnitude can be debated.
Proposition 3 The increase is man-made, due to the greenhouse effect created when combustion and other gases are released into the atmosphere.
In the 1970s there was debate about halogenated gases (refrigerants, etc.) in the atmosphere creating the ozone hole. The theory was proved correct.
Theoretically the greenhouse effect appears to be valid, although more complex and hence less convincing. Climate cycling has occurred over the ages for unknown reasons and may be responsible for part or whole of the warming. Proposition 3 is probably true, but still open to debate about the magnitude of the contribution.
Proposition 4 Weather patterns will change as a result of the warming.
True, but how? Even more complex than the greenhouse issue, but twenty years ago the forecasters were predicting that because of the greenhouse effect southern Australian would become drier in the winter, and the northern part subject to more violent storms. So far they appear to have got it right, by skill or good luck.
Proposition 5 Australia should sign the Kyoto agreement.
The Kyoto agreement is a con job. Most of the developed nations are moving out of energy intensive industries anyway, so reduced energy consumption fits their strategy.
The developing nations are not bound at all, so taking over the energy intensive industries fits their strategies. To match developed nation targets Australia would have to abandon mineral processing. However, unless the end demand for aluminium, steel, copper, etc., decreases, all that would happen is that Australia would export raw minerals to developing counties for them to process into metals. We are meeting our Kyoto targets.
An international agreement is needed that involves all nations. Unless population pressures in developing nations fall away or they never reach the living standards of the developed, it is hard to see world energy consumption falling and hence greenhouse emissions falling.
Proposition 6 It is prudent to take precautionary action by reducing greenhouse emissions and as we are all agreed that temperatures will rise, strategic planning should reflect that.
The Victorian Government will (from July) regulate house building, with emphasis on design and insulation requirements, to reduce dependence on heating and cooling inputs. Other States should similarly control building. [NSW has].
A higher temperature also affects water supplies because of increased evaporation. Measures are being introduced to recycle and conserve water. Nevertheless, agriculture will be reduced.
Immigration should be curtailed as it is the greatest source of increased demand for energy and water.
Proposition 7 Think globally and act locally
Foreign aid should be concentrated on education (low birth rates correlate with higher education for women), birth control and transfer of energy efficient technology. Most direct aid to developing governments finishes up as high living for the rulers or AK-47s to subdue the locals.
Locally all good citizens should embrace energy saving technology and water conservation. You don’t have to go all high-tech with solar electricity generation; solar hot water and high quality home insulation is a good start. The energy demands of competing products should be part of every purchase, from fridges and TVs through to cars.
Proposition 1 The earth’s surface is getting hotter and the rate of warming is increasing.
Nobody disputes the scientific measurements reflected from satellites. Visual evidence of polar ice caps contracting and record high temperatures in Australia reinforce the truth of the proposition.
Proposition 2 Sea levels will rise, causing hardship and dislocation to some communities.
This follows from Proposition 1, although the magnitude can be debated.
Proposition 3 The increase is man-made, due to the greenhouse effect created when combustion and other gases are released into the atmosphere.
In the 1970s there was debate about halogenated gases (refrigerants, etc.) in the atmosphere creating the ozone hole. The theory was proved correct.
Theoretically the greenhouse effect appears to be valid, although more complex and hence less convincing. Climate cycling has occurred over the ages for unknown reasons and may be responsible for part or whole of the warming. Proposition 3 is probably true, but still open to debate about the magnitude of the contribution.
Proposition 4 Weather patterns will change as a result of the warming.
True, but how? Even more complex than the greenhouse issue, but twenty years ago the forecasters were predicting that because of the greenhouse effect southern Australian would become drier in the winter, and the northern part subject to more violent storms. So far they appear to have got it right, by skill or good luck.
Proposition 5 Australia should sign the Kyoto agreement.
The Kyoto agreement is a con job. Most of the developed nations are moving out of energy intensive industries anyway, so reduced energy consumption fits their strategy.
The developing nations are not bound at all, so taking over the energy intensive industries fits their strategies. To match developed nation targets Australia would have to abandon mineral processing. However, unless the end demand for aluminium, steel, copper, etc., decreases, all that would happen is that Australia would export raw minerals to developing counties for them to process into metals. We are meeting our Kyoto targets.
An international agreement is needed that involves all nations. Unless population pressures in developing nations fall away or they never reach the living standards of the developed, it is hard to see world energy consumption falling and hence greenhouse emissions falling.
Proposition 6 It is prudent to take precautionary action by reducing greenhouse emissions and as we are all agreed that temperatures will rise, strategic planning should reflect that.
The Victorian Government will (from July) regulate house building, with emphasis on design and insulation requirements, to reduce dependence on heating and cooling inputs. Other States should similarly control building. [NSW has].
A higher temperature also affects water supplies because of increased evaporation. Measures are being introduced to recycle and conserve water. Nevertheless, agriculture will be reduced.
Immigration should be curtailed as it is the greatest source of increased demand for energy and water.
Proposition 7 Think globally and act locally
Foreign aid should be concentrated on education (low birth rates correlate with higher education for women), birth control and transfer of energy efficient technology. Most direct aid to developing governments finishes up as high living for the rulers or AK-47s to subdue the locals.
Locally all good citizens should embrace energy saving technology and water conservation. You don’t have to go all high-tech with solar electricity generation; solar hot water and high quality home insulation is a good start. The energy demands of competing products should be part of every purchase, from fridges and TVs through to cars.
